Investigators: Alberti, MRusso, M and Tenneson K.
Funding: Bullitt Foundation. 2010-2012.

The Snohomish Basin Scenarios (SBS) aim to support critical decisions for maintaining ecosystem functions in the Snohomish Basin in the long term despite irreducible uncertainty. The Project, led by the Urban Ecology Research Lab in partnership with a team of regional experts, aimed to develop and assess hypotheses about the future trajectories of ecosystem service provision in the basin by characterizing the uncertainty associated with alternative future baseline conditions. The project culminated in four scenarios presenting unique and surprising sets of future conditions. Together the four scenarios are intended to provide decision-makers with essential information for testing, monitoring, innovating and prioritizing policies in light of potential opportunities and challenges that future conditions may present. Project lessons are translated into six areas of support for making decisions under uncertainty. Scenario planning provides a systematic approach to 1) focus on system resilience rather than controlling change, 2) redefine the decision context and framework, 3) challenge our assumptions about future conditions, 4) highlight risks and opportunities that prompt creative solutions, 5) monitor warning signals of regime shifts, and 6) identify robust decisions under uncertainty.

Final Report:

Main report

Appendix 1 List of Partnerships, Projects and People
Appendix 2 Predictive Models and Integration
Appendix 3 Past and Future Trends of Key Driving Forces
Appendix 4 Ecosystem Services Hypotheses
Appendix 5 Scenario Planning Approach
Appendix 6 Workshop Materials and Syntheses
Full Report with Appendices (note: large file size 25mb)